昨天看到哥特式素颜得股票损失，真是给她捏了一把汗，也不知道什么时候能解套。祝福和素颜一样得各位被套着得姐妹早日解套！

正好刚刚看到一篇英文得博客，聊得是关于股票，我把英文得发在最下面，让那些像学习英语得顺便学一下。

大家都知道最好得买卖股票得时间就是低买高卖，可是真正能有几个人能做到？

人类本身就是贪婪得，所以跟风，觉得这个好，就跟着风买这个；看到别人得涨了，又去跟风买。看老板之前介绍得电影“百万富翁得英镑”，里面英国人是那样，跟风买涨。中国得大妈也是，去年还不是前年一窝蜂得买黄金，“中国大妈”这一响当当得名号着实把国外各大媒体都吓到了。

我们不是专业人士，即使是专业人士也无法预知股票什么时候会涨，什么时候会跌。这里得姐妹们很多都是知道止赢得，但是你有没有遇到过，止赢了之后，股票继续上涨，如果你继续买，也许你赚得会更多，这个时候你有没有后悔？

这篇博客得作者就06年得时候花每股26美元得价格买了一个石油得股票，在08经济危机之前，股票价格已经上涨到58美元一股，他卖掉了，在盈利123%得时候他及时止赢了。之后经历了危机，到14年年初得时候，这个股票价格已经上涨到快200美元一股。如果当年他继续跟进，那现在在卖出得收益差不多有670%。博主认为当时他止赢不是坏得决定，当然现在看来也不是很好得决定。

姐妹们，有兴趣得可以讨论看看

1）如何判断一个股票是好还是坏，你懂得吗？

2）你得止赢点是多少？有没有心里有个数值在？

3）你会跟着买涨吗？

With the market riding high again, you might be thinking about selling a few holdings and reinvesting the cash when stocks have fallen again.

Buy low, sell high. That's the idea, right?

But before you hit the sell button, consider Philip Fisher's answer to the question, "Should an investor sell a good stock in the face of a potentially bad market?" 

Even if the stock of a particular company seems at or near a temporary peak and that a sizable decline may strike in the near future, I will not sell the firm's shares provided I believe that its longer term future is sufficiently attractive... 
My belief stems from some rather fundamental considerations about the nature of the investment process. Companies with truly unusual prospects for appreciation are quite hard to find for there are not too many of them. However, for someone who understands and applies sound fundamentals, I believe that a truly outstanding company can be differentiated from a run-of-the-mill company with perhaps 90 percent precision.
It is vastly more difficult to forecast what a particular stock is going to do in the next six months...For these reasons, I believe that it is hard to be correct in forecasting the short-term movement of stocks more than 60 percent of the time no matter how diligently the skill is cultivated. This may well be too optimistic an estimate. 
So, putting it in the simplest mathematical terms, both the odds and the risk/reward considerations favor holding. 
It's a point worth re-emphasizing. You have much higher odds of identifying a truly outstanding company than guessing how that company's stock will perform in the next six months. Play the odds accordingly.

Lesson learned...hopefully

I haven't always followed this advice. In April 2006, I bought shares of Core Laboratories (CLB), a high-quality and advantaged oil & gas services company, for a split-adjusted price near $26. Two years later, with oil prices near record highs, I sold the stock near $58 and patted myself on the back for a job well done.

Don't pull out your flowers and water your weeds.
(Photo taken at Kew Gardens by my wife. Nice, huh?)I felt particularly good about my decision during the financial crisis when oil prices plunged and Core Labs fell back around $30.

Had I capitalized on my sheer luck and bought back into Core Labs after it dipped, this story might have had a happier ending, but alas I did not.

In fact, my portfolio's subsequent returns would have been markedly better had I done nothing at all. Fast forward to today and Core Labs is trading at $139 and was up to almost $200 earlier this year.

Now, it's possible that I'm looking back at this case with a serious case of hindsight bias, but my selling decision in 2008 wasn't due to a lower opinion of Core Labs' business or its management. Instead, I wanted to lock in my 123% gain after a strong run in oil prices. Not a terrible decision, of course, but not a good one either.

To see how it's supposed to work, fund manager Chuck Akre* said in an interview earlier this year that his firm has owned shares of Markel (MKL) for over 20 years and that they didn't sell during down times. During that 20+ year timeframe, according to Akre, Markel's book value per share increased 14% annualized and its stock price has grown at least at the same rate.

If you're playing at home, those kind of annualized returns will turn a $10,000 investment into just under $140,000 over 20 years.